Affordable housing still can be saved along western portions of The 606, but time is running out amid soaring property values. It’s already too late to stop gentrification near the eastern half of the elevated trail.
Those are among the findings of a new report by the Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University, which updates 2016 research on The 606.
The research released Wednesday shows eye-popping rates of property appreciation and comes amid an effort by Northwest Side aldermen to legislate a slowdown of gentrification near the western portion of the trail — an effort initially held up by Mayor Lori Lightfoot.
The aldermen initially proposed a 14-month halt to all demolition and building permits and zoning changes to residential buildings. A revised version, proposing a six-month moratorium only for demolitions, was approved Wednesday by the City Council.
DePaul’s research found that the median sales price of buildings with four or fewer units, including single-family homes, along the westernmost part of The 606 rose 344% in seven years — from $97,000 in 2012, when construction of The 606 began, to $430,500 in 2018. The trail opened in 2015.
The increase was far more dramatic than sale prices along the middle area of the trail, which rose from $407,000 to $605,500 in the same time period, and to the east, which went from $661,250 to $960,000.
For all of Chicago, the median sales price rose from $136,000 in 2012 during a real estate downturn to $222,000 in 2018.
DePaul’s study also looked at the supply of only two- to four-flat buildings in a wider area near the trail, highlighting potential strategies for preserving affordable homes in the Logan Square, Humboldt Park and Hermosa neighborhoods.
For those buildings, prices in the westernmost area rose from $97,000 in 2012 to $462,000 in 2018, compared with a jump from $155,500 to $570,000 in the middle area and an increase from $575,000 to $833,000 on the eastern edge.
The greatest opportunity for preservation of lower-cost housing is around the western areas of the trail, while there’s little chance of reversing the trend around the middle and east parts of the 2.7-mile trail, said Geoff Smith, the institute’s executive director.
Potential solutions include using land banks and philanthropic groups to acquire properties that come available for sale, Smith said. Quick action will be needed, though, to keep up with the fast-moving private development sector.
Preliminary research, which is not included in DePaul’s 606 report, indicates there have been almost 150 two-, three- and four-unit residential buildings lost to redevelopment along the trail between 2013 and 2018, Smith said. Most of them were converted to or replaced by single-family homes.
“It’s not just that those buildings go away, it’s that there’s no mechanism to replace them as affordable units,” Smith said. “Once you lose those family-sized rental units, they’re really not being replaced.”
Smith said DePaul’s study can support efforts by city officials, affordable housing advocates and neighborhood groups to preserve affordable housing along The 606 as well as to anticipate, and help prevent, similar displacement of lower-income residents near other proposed projects in Chicago, such as the 4-mile El Paseo trail through Pilsen and Little Village and the Obama Presidential Center in Jackson Park.
“We hope the lesson learned from The 606 process is that it’s important to align affordable housing strategies with these types of large, place-based public investments,” Smith said.
Larger developments than single-family homes have created new apartments, but they tend to be smaller, luxury units not suitable for lower-income families, Smith said.
The loss of smaller, multiunit buildings is part of a broader trend in several Chicago neighborhoods, according to DePaul.
Chicago Tribune’s John Byrne contributed.
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